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The global memory market: back to square one
Despite the fact that participants in trading on exchanges throughout the day
tried to make prices rise, this did not happen – not supported by real
they continued to fall in demand. The situation has not changed at morning trading today.
The price of markers, 256 Mbit (32×8) DDR266 / 333 Hynix chips dropped to the mark
$ 5.53 per chip, DDR400 – $ 5.60. Within the next week
the trend will continue.
Despite the fact that PC OEMs are extremely unhappy with the growth of contract
prices, they are forced to agree with the conditions imposed by memory manufacturers,
fearing a possible deficit in the third and fourth quarters of the year and therefore buy back
the ordered memory completely. As observers note, the rise in contract prices
in the second half of April, however, did not lead to an increase in prices for 256 Mbps (32×8)
DDR SDRAM chips in the spot market.
Taiwan ? DDR SDRAM Taiwan ? SDR SDRAM
According to DRAMeXchange analysts, the effect of rumors of a massive chip dump
Samsung and Hynix on the spot market turned out to be significant: from April 13, the price of 256
Mbit (32×8) of DDR400 / 333/266 chips decreased by 12-13% in Taiwan ? s 6.47 / 6.39 / 6.34
up to 5.63 / 5.58 / 5.58 dollars at the moment. Chip sales depended on traders
China, which showed uncertainty about the stability of the growth of spot prices. The result
is the current decline – buyers do not want to buy memory at high
prices, so sellers have to lower prices to determine the level
Considering the possible dead-cross of spot prices and rising contract prices, it is possible
to say that in the near future a rise in prices is unlikely, and even more so the prices are not
will reach the shown record of $ 6.50 (May is traditionally the month of moderate
sales, June – the beginning of the low season). DRAMeXchange analysts say,
having the ability to constantly monitor changes on the exchange during the day,
the price of 256 Mbit (32×8) DDR SDRAM chips will fluctuate depending on the type
at $ 5.30-5.70 per chip.
General information on the market: trends and prospects
According to sources, Taiwanese manufacturers of chips and DRAM modules
most sold to Chinese computer companies, which traditionally usually
used modules on components from major global manufacturers.
China will become the world’s main market by 2021, according to iSuppli report
memory modules – it will sell about 30% of the total number of modules
(in 2021 this figure was 21%). Last year, by the way, the share
the presence of the four leading memory manufacturers in the Chinese market accounted for
92%, Taiwan controlled 7.1% of the market, Nanya Technology 4%.
Many module manufacturers in Taiwan have now started selling to Chinese
OEM PC builders Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation
(PSC), which follows Nanya, which supplies chips to the Chinese Ramaxel
Technology. In 2021, Ramaxel controlled
7% of the total market for third-party modules, estimated at 8.7 billion. dollars.
The next 3-5 years will be the most successful for Taiwan to penetrate
the Chinese market, which will increase the country’s role in the production of microcircuits. In 2021 Taiwan
managed to squeeze the United States from second place in the ranking of the world’s major manufacturing countries
– production of microcircuits of the country amounted to about 589.6 million. conventional (256 Mbit) chips.
It is also worth noting that Taiwanese memory chip manufacturers are striving to
obtain certification of your products from Intel. The point is that if companies
will be able to present to the market this type of memory “in the forefront”, then
will be able to dictate the price 20-30% higher than it will be later, when the memory appears
on the market in bulk.
However, according to the Commercial Times, testing companies
and packaging of memory chips in Taiwan, currently they are in no hurry to purchase
hardware for DDR2, as they doubt that the chip makers
will increase production in the near future. As a reminder, Nanya Technology has already
received certification of its 512 Mbit DDR2 SDRAM chips and plans to
to bring the share of deliveries of this type of memory to OEM-customers up to 30-40% of the total amount.
Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation (PSC) will start a pilot
production of Intel-certified 512 Mbit microcircuits (0.10-micron process technology)
for Elpida Memory, ProMOS Technologies can only start pilot production
in Q4 and is awaiting Intel certification.